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Take-Two takes analysts for a ride

<a href="http://finance.aol.com/quotes/take-two-interactive-software-inc/ttwo/nas">Take-Two Interactive (NASDAQ: TTWO) is riding high on its Grand Theft Auto IV title. The popular game (big understatement) helped push the top-line during the third quarter to a better than 100% gain, coming in at $433 million. As for the bottom line, forget about it -- that was blown out of the water. On an adjusted basis, net income was 93 cents per share versus a loss of $0.62 in the year-ago period.

According to Briefing.com, this simply was far more than any analyst anticipated. The bottom line bested estimates by 39 cents! Most shareholders probably anticipated Take-Two going beyond Wall Street's expectations, but I'm not sure they thought that the publisher could pull such an order of magnitude off. Nevertheless, management believes that next quarter might not be as hot as first anticipated due to some timing issues. So they guided lower for Q4. This might explain, in part, the lack of excitement surrounding the stock at the close of the after-hours session on Thursday. The stock ended up with a 0.5% gain in price.

However, all is not lost. While Take-Two thinks Q4 might not be the best thing since sliced bread, it is confident that it will be able to go beyond the original outlook for the fiscal year. Take-Two says it will deliver between $2.08 and $2.12 in adjusted earnings per share for the year. Wall Street was counting on $1.81 per share for the fiscal year. With the stock trading around the $23 mark, this would imply that the shares could be cheap.

Continue reading Take-Two takes analysts for a ride

Kraft alters guidance, but I wouldn't worry

Food manufacturer Kraft (NYSE: KFT) is backing away from some previous earnings guidance. CEO Irene Rosenfeld said that 2008 net income should be, at the very least, $1.88 per share. This is $0.04 less than the original expectation of $1.92 per share. For 2009, the CEO thinks Kraft will deliver a minimum of $2 per share. Analysts were looking for $2.06 per share.

Should those who own shares of Kraft immediately put an order in to dump the stock? Well, shareholders know what is best for them and their specific situations, but if you want my opinion, I don't think Kraft is a sell.

For starters, that $1.88 per share figure represents an adjustment related to the sale of the Post cereal asset. It therefore doesn't bother me too much. And as for the 2009 estimate, Kraft's $2-per-share guidance includes a $0.03 charge for the Post-cereal exit and monies devoted to cost savings. Analyst estimates for the most part don't factor adjustments into their bottom-line figures. So, this guidance doesn't really frighten me.

What I think is more telling is the issue of margins. Consumer-products companies such as Hershey (NYSE: HSY), Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG), Kellogg (NYSE: K) and PepsiCo (NYSE: PEP) all have margins on their corporate minds. From what I can tell, Kraft has been pretty successful at protecting itself from inflation by utilizing price increases.

Continue reading Kraft alters guidance, but I wouldn't worry

Will 'Spore' help Electronic Arts' fortunes?

You know, I keep hearing about this Spore game. It's set to be released by Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS) to the Nintendo DS and to computer platforms later this week. There's been so much buzz surrounding it, and for good reason. Not only does it sound pretty neat and imaginative, but it was designed by Will Wright, the man who brought the world the Sim franchise. As I understand it, the player's goal is to guide a microbe through the process of evolution until it becomes a society blessed with enough intelligence so as to confer the capability of interstellar travel. Wild stuff, right? Remember, Wright is a genius, and the Sim games have certainly brought in a lot of dough for EA.

But how will the game be received? Is it too complex, too brainy for most gamers? Or, will Spore take the whole Sim concept into a new stratosphere of success? Are we witnessing the birth of a new, marketing-friendly super-franchise that will appeal to a broad demographic? Like I say, the buzz is strong. Yet, I didn't realize the title was coming out this week until I read this recent press release, which is using some celebrities to promote the game. Go figure, I guess.

I think Spore will be a hit, but I'm not sure it will be a big enough hit to move EA's stock back to its 52-week high, certainly. The publisher has such a deep portfolio of games, so this one title won't necessarily move the needle. But the celebration of Spore forced me to take another look at EA and wonder if the company's stock might be an interesting play ahead of the holiday season.

Continue reading Will 'Spore' help Electronic Arts' fortunes?

The Dark Knight's success could mean trouble for the next Batman movie

Well, it's happened. Time Warner's (NYSE: TWX) The Dark Knight reached $500 million. According to Boxofficemojo.com, the blockbuster's total tally stands at roughly $504 million as of this writing. Shareholders in the famous media company should be pretty darn happy, especially considering that the DVD will certainly be a big hit during the holiday season.

Yet, I have to wonder if there is a dark side to this monumental achievement. I mean, you do have to ask yourself whether Time Warner could possibly produce a follow-up to Knight. The success of the current flick means that all the Comic-Con geeks out there are going to demand a storyline that blows the pants off Knight. Who knows if that's possible (and I should point out that I, for one, wasn't impressed with Knight, and thought that the hype generated by it was irrational).

And if Time Warner isn't able to please its core audience, could it manage to convince mainstream audiences that the film is worth a shot? A movie doesn't reach $500 million with just the core demographic, of course. When people see big numbers flowing in from the first couple weekends, and subsequently hear about fans seeing a project multiple times, it instills interest in these other demographics, ones that are outside the target audience. This is how a phenomenon is made. And I think repeating such a feat represents a difficulty of the highest order.

Continue reading The Dark Knight's success could mean trouble for the next Batman movie

Microsoft's browser upgrade: Bad for ads?

According to this article, advertisers who use the Internet to get their message across may not like Microsoft's (NASDAQ: MSFT) Internet Explorer 8 beta. That's because the software giant is incorporating technology into the browser that will make it harder for data collection that could be used to target ads. In addition, the browser will be able to block some ads entirely, as well as block content from another website from appearing on the current site a user is viewing. The rationale for the latter is that the outside website could be capturing data on the user's habits.

All this adds up, in my mind, to a legitimate fear for advertisers. Look, I'm like anyone else. I don't want a lot of data collection going on. But, there are basically only two ways for companies like Yahoo! (NASDAQ: YHOO) and Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) to make money off web content: engage a subscription model, or utilize ad platforms to monetize eyeballs. The Internet has proven to be very resistant to subscription models. Sure, some do work to great success. For the most part, however, surfers don't want to have to throw a credit-card number into a form to be able to see content. It just doesn't work. They want unfettered access to sites. If this is to be the case going forward, then highly-targeted ads are going to play an increasing role in the solution to monetization challenges. Web sites aren't like cable channels, which have the dual revenue streams of subscriber fees and ad sales.

And, keep in mind that the companies mentioned above aren't the only ones who rely on targeted ads. How about Disney (NYSE: DIS)? News Corp. (NYSE: NWS)? Viacom (NYSE: VIA)? They all have major Internet strategies that utilize ad revenues. And let's not forget the incredible irony here. Mr. Softy has its own Internet strategy that needs ads to survive. I guess it's a tough position to be in: the designers want to enhance the attractiveness of Internet Explorer to users by helping them avoid the very thing that powers, in part, shareholder value for the maker of Internet Explorer. A conundrum, to be sure. I personally hope a solution can be found that will allow advertisers to continue selling their wares. I don't find advertising to be evil. I think it's a great industry that serves an important function in the economy. Microsoft had better consider that.

Disclosure: I own Disney; positions can change at any time.

Dell's Q2: What the heck?

Dell (NASDAQ: DELL ), whose competitors include Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL), Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ), Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) and Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), reported results for the second quarter on Thursday after the market closed. Like many others, I wasn't expecting the bottom-line results to miss estimates. But it did.

The top line was okay. Net sales increased 11% to $16.4 billion, beating estimates that called for growth of around 8%. But earnings per diluted share were not okay. They came in at 31 cents, a 6% decrease in terms of year-over-year comparisons. Wall Street was looking for 36 cents per diluted share. Costs went up at a greater rate than sales growth, driving the gross margin down. As can be seen, Dell needs to better manage its cost structure so that it may protect its margins. It's a shame that the company couldn't have grown the bottom line considering the nice revenue gain.

Not only was the profit drop disillusioning, but the operational cash flow was likewise disappointing. It dropped 40% during the quarter, and it decreased 29% over the least six months. Dell watches its cash flow carefully, and it would like the money generated from operations to exceed the net-earnings figure. So far, the company has fallen short in this regard. However, according to the transcript, Dell's CFO, Brian T. Gladden, believes that operational cash flow will exceed net earnings. Shareholders obviously hope that he'll be ultimately proven correct on this prediction.

Continue reading Dell's Q2: What the heck?

Is TiVo a buy after its Q2 report?

It's cool fun sometimes to look at under-$10 stocks and see if there are any worth investing in. TiVo (NASDAQ: TIVO), famous maker of digital-video-recorder technology, is currently trading under $10 a share, and it reported its Q2 numbers on Wednesday. I can't say, though, that I'm ready to buy just yet, even though some of the stats presented in the release described a nice improvement in year-over-year comparisons.

The bottom line, in fact, improved substantially. Earnings per diluted share came in at 3 cents. Last year, TiVo saw a loss of 18 cents per diluted share. According to Earnings.com, analysts were looking for a loss of 2 cents per share during the quarter, so estimates were certainly beat.

Cash flow from operations also jumped in a very nice way. The company generated over $10 million over the last six months. During the similar time period in 2007, TiVo needed to use almost three times that amount to keep operations going. Cash flow is an important metric for investors to look at, so that was good to see.

Continue reading Is TiVo a buy after its Q2 report?

J. Crew Group's Q2 fails to impress; avoid the stock

J. Crew Group's (NYSE: JCG) stock is not a thing of beauty. The retailer's shares have been weak for a long time, and the latest quarterly numbers did nothing to change my mind about the stock's prospects.

For the second quarter, J. Crew, whose competitors include Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF) and Gap (NYSE: GPS), reported a 10% increase in top-line sales. Not bad, I suppose. But I'll tell you what, there is some bad to come. Operating income went down 15%. Gross margin saw an unfortunate decline, dropping from 43.7% to 41%. And earnings per diluted share came in at 28 cents compared to last year's 32 cents per diluted share. That's a better than 12% drop.

Now, there is something to consider with the stats. The earnings release states that a systems upgrade in the direct-sales channel is affecting the results. In fact, there apparently were some costs related to the upgrades that were unexpected. Management says that this sum was equal to $3 million. In theory, these upgrades will help to position the company for long-term growth.

Continue reading J. Crew Group's Q2 fails to impress; avoid the stock

Dell earnings preview: Balancing act of cost cuts and earnings growth

Dell (NASDAQ: DELL), a PC maker whose rivals include Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) and Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ), is due to report second-quarter numbers on Thursday, August 28, after the market close. It's going to be interesting to see what the company says about demand levels for its PCs. We're still working our way through a tough economic period, so in some respects, this will be a sign of how the consumer is faring.

Of course, Dell has been trying to stage a comeback lately even without regard to the economy. As with any once-hot growth stock, there comes a time when the capital appreciation starts to slow and gains are digested. Dell's shares have cooled over the last several years. Dell's stock has decreased over 21% over the five-year timeframe, and 29% over the last three years.

Lately, though, the stock has been stronger and, appreciating over 20% in the past six months, and nearly 7% in the past month alone.

Dell is expected to report a double-digit increase in the bottom line this Thursday. The call is for 36 cents per share, according to Earnings.com. Last year at this time, Dell posted earnings of 32 cents per share. Looking at the history of Q2 results, I'd say it's a decent bet that the company meets expectations. If management were to blow the estimates out of the water, it would be impressive, but my gut says that won't happen. According to Trey Thoelcke, top-line revenues should expand by roughly 8%.

Continue reading Dell earnings preview: Balancing act of cost cuts and earnings growth

Is Time Warner making too many movies?

Time Warner Inc. (NYSE: TWX) will be more conservative in the number of movies it produces in a 12-month period, according to this piece at The Wall Street Journal. As movies are becoming so expensive these days, and studios are becoming increasingly averse to taking on risk in the fickle world of celluloid, the thinking is that fewer investments in theatrical projects will concentrate funds on only the best concepts. These concepts will, in theory, be tentpole productions like The Dark Knight, ones that have enormous franchise potential to spawn sequels and merchandise windfalls and that oftentimes will be based on valuable source material, such as iconic comic-book characters. Sounds great, right?

Only problem is, it's wrong. I've argued this point in the past, and I'm here to argue it again. There's no question that studios such as The Walt Disney Company (NYSE: DIS), Viacom, Inc. (NYSE: VIA), News Corporation (NYSE: NWS), General Electric Company (NYSE: GE)'s Universal, and Sony Corporation (ADR) (NYSE: SNE) put precious capital at risk every single time they greenlight a project. But there's a huge illogicality at work here. Why would you want to put out less concepts as opposed to more? If the movie industry is such a gamble, wouldn't it be prudent to send more pictures to the marketplace?

Continue reading Is Time Warner making too many movies?

'The Dark Knight' drops as 'Tropic Thunder' stays on top

According to Boxofficemojo.com, last weekend's top film, Viacom's (NYSE: VIA) Tropic Thunder, retained its number-one status over the past three days. It is estimated to have grossed $16 million at domestic theaters as of this writing. Of course, things could change, since the film currently in second place, Sony's (NYSE: SNE) The House Bunny, is only about a million dollars behind the Ben Stiller comedy. I have a feeling, though, that Thunder will keep its top spot. It seems to have some decent momentum behind it.

Death Race, released by General Electric's (NYSE: GE) Universal, came in third with about $12 million. Not too exciting of a debut. This is the kind of the film that ideally should have come out at the beginning of the summer box-office season. Since I haven't seen it, I can't say whether it would have been appropriate to have released it at that time (i.e., maybe it didn't come out that great and needed to be dumped in the latter days of August).

Dropping two places to number four is everybody's favorite superhero these days, Time Warner's (NYSE: TWX) The Dark Knight. The movie has roughly $489 million in total to its credit. It won't reach the heights of Titanic, but it will pass $500 million. Not too shabby for the Bat. I'm sure the studio division at Time Warner is working overdrive right now to construct a competent, cohesive marketing campaign to ensure that the home-video release adequately takes advantage of the incredible theatrical success that Knight has generated. They really have a big property on their hands with this one.

Continue reading 'The Dark Knight' drops as 'Tropic Thunder' stays on top

AnnTaylor whips Wall Street estimates, but I'm not buying

AnnTaylor (NYSE: ANN), whose colleagues include Liz Claiborne (NYSE: LIZ) and Talbots (NYSE: TLB), reported Q2 earnings stats that beat the views of Wall Street. The retailer said it made $0.54 per share in the second quarter versus $0.51 per share earned in the similar period a year ago. These bottom-line results are on an adjusted basis. According to Reuters, analysts were looking for about $0.49 per share. So that's a nice $0.05 beat.

The bottom line may have surprised analysts, but other parts of the story didn't excite me. The top line decreased by almost 4%. Same-store sales took a big dive, declining pretty near 11%. Comps are an important metric for retailers, and a significant decrease like this one always makes investors cautious. Management cited low traffic levels as a driver of the dismal comps. Seems to me like someone at the chain needs to rethink the current marketing campaigns. The gross margin did improve, though, so at least there's that.

After reading through the earnings release, it became quite apparent to me that management is clearly worried about the economy going forward. They're right, I think the rest of the year may indeed be rough on the consumer. With such weak stats, I think it would be hard to make a case for buying AnnTaylor's stock. If you're a contrarian and think the company will consistently beat earnings from this point on, and you turn out to be right, then buying the stock now might make for a good trade. But I'd have to hear good reasons for such a bullish case. I think it's entirely possible that AnnTaylor's shares trend lower from here. No matter what, I won't be putting this retailer on my personal watch list. My advice to the company: get traffic through the door with more innovative promotional schemes.

Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.

Heinz beats Street expectations -- management making the right moves

Heinz (NYSE: HNZ) beat analyst expectations, and mine for that matter, when it released its first-quarter report on Thursday. Wall Street was looking for about 66 cents per share on the bottom line. Heinz delivered 72 per cents share, a figure that represents a 14% growth rate. This was achieved with the help of a 15% rise in top-line sales.

Management mentioned that organic sales were aided pretty evenly by volume growth and pricing strategies. Looks like brand equity wins the day yet again. People are simply willing to pay for their name brands. This isn't to say that generic, private-label items won't always be a concern for companies like Heinz, as well as competitors such as Hershey (NYSE: HSY), Kraft (NYSE: KFT), Campbell Soup (NYSE: CPB), PepsiCo (NYSE: PEP) and General Mills (NYSE: GIS). They always will be.

Heinz is proving to be one heck of a defensive business during this tough recession. The only segment where the company is having problems is in its U.S. Foodservice where sales and operating income declined. Not so surprising, I suppose, since some restaurants are having trouble getting patrons through the door. People may be willing to spend for Heinz ketchup in the supermarket, but if they're not willing to go to the local casual-dining hangout, then those places won't be demanding as much Heinz ketchup for their tables.

Continue reading Heinz beats Street expectations -- management making the right moves

Aeropostale (ARO) sees excellent growth in Q2 -- could it last?

Aeropostale (NYSE: ARO), a retailer whose colleagues include Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF), Pacific Sunwear of California (NASDAQ: PSUN) and Gap (NYSE: GPS), issued its Q2 report on Thursday. The stock didn't do much after the numbers were made public despite reporting a very nice 21% increase in sales during Q2, and a whopping 63% jump in earnings per diluted share to 31 cents. Why such a blasé reaction? Well, the retailer was only able to match the expectations of Wall Street analysts, so that might offer some justification for the lack of a decisive bid.

I felt the same way after reading Aeropostale's earnings release as I did after perusing the stats behind GameStop's (NYSE: GME) recent quarter, thinking the company deserved at least a little excitement, especially when one considers that last year at this time, the mall chain saw a 4% contraction in same-store sales. Of course, there is one understandable difference between the GameStop situation and the Aeropostale scenario. GameStop's stock wasn't trading near a 52-week high, and Aeropostale's shares are. So, perhaps the market is perceiving that a lot of the good news is already priced in.

Aeropostale has done well this year. Its stock is up over 28%. Should that concern potential investors? Perhaps. After all, this is a mall retailer based on fashion and investors must consider that Aeropostale's current hot streak could cool. If that happens, the stock might end up retreating back to the lower end of its 52-week range. While there are any signs that such a retreat will happen, I only want to throw into the discussion the concept of fickleness among the youth.

If you really like Aeropostale and want to buy its stock, it might not be so bad to wait for a better price, in my opinion, to allow at least a little margin for error.

Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.

GameStop delivers incredible growth, but stock just won't react

Investors have to find this frustrating. I know I hate it when this happens to one of my stocks. GameStop Corp. (NYSE: GME) issued its Q2 numbers today. The numbers were a thing of beauty for the most part. Yet, the stock goes nowhere. And yes, I know this is a bad market day, but still, I thought a little pop was in order. As it is, shares are down about 1% as I write.

Sales increased almost 35% to $1.8 billion. The bottom line saw an increase of well over 100%, coming in at $0.34 per diluted share. According to this article, expectations were for $0.28 per share. So, do you see where I'm coming from? Expectations were beat, and growth was stellar... come on, investors, give the stock a bid! Granted, the article mentioned something I noticed as well: the gross margin declined. Okay, it declined. But same-store sales simply rocketed like a spacecraft at a growth rate of 20% during Q2. That has to be worth something ahead of the holiday-selling season. Games from Electronic Arts Inc. (NASDAQ: ERTS), Activision Blizzard, Inc. (NASDAQ: ATVI), and Nintendo Co., Ltd. (ADR) (OTC: NTDOY) powered the quarter. And guess what? They're going to power the next two quarters, too. We have new iterations of Guitar Hero, Call of Duty, and Rock Band to look forward to. Oh, and Lego Batman. Seriously, don't discount that latter title. A lot of Sony Corporation (ADR) (NYSE: SNE) PlayStation 3s and Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) Xbox 360s will move off shelves, and that little system called the Wii is going to be the hottest console again this Christmas. Oh, and then there's the DS. GameStop sells 'em all.

GameStop beat its own guidance, and I think it has a great chance of continuing to beat its own guidance in the near future. That aforementioned article mentions that investors are concerned with slowing growth in the video-game universe. Okay, point well taken, I suppose. But GameStop is such a great brand in its sector, and consumers have come to know it as the go-to place for entertainment software. And as hardware continues to become cheaper, and as the installed user base rises, GameStop should benefit. The shares haven't done well this year, declining over 30% on the year-to-date timeframe as of this writing. The stock is much closer to its 52-week low than to its 52-week high. It's weak. But, I also think it's cheap. If you have a long time horizon, you may want to check GameStop out. If you're a quicker trader, you may want to wait for the stock to come back about $5 toward its 52-week low (if that happens).

Disclosure: I own Activision Blizzard; positions can change at any time.

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Last updated: September 05, 2008: 02:44 PM

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